Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
I'm not an alarmist and I think it is wise to make decisions on solid information and not be reactive to short term conditions.
That being said, Americans have long enjoyed access to relatively inexpensive energy. I'm not sure that will be the trend going forward.
I am NOT talking about next week, next month or even the next few years. I'm talking about the next 20 years plus.
Short term high energy costs, like some of us experienced in the oil crisis' of the 1970's (there were two); can be rode out with a little short term adjustment.
You don't make big decisions based on the cost and availability of energy over a year or two. You make decisions on the cost of energy over 10 to 20 years.
There was a push for "all electric" houses in the 1960's and 1970's. I can remember when electric baseboard heating systems were very popular. That form of heat turned out to be hideously expensive when the cost of electricity went up.
In the Northeast there was a shift from oil to natural gas. That trend seems to have slowed and even reversed in some cases.
During the second 1970's oil crisis, everyone and their brother wanted a wood stove.
From the early 1980's to today, oil prices have fluctuated considerably. Propane prices are tied to oil prices, so they go hand in hand. I don't see super cheap oil ever being available for long stretches of time.
U.S. production of natural gas has increased dramatically and it has become far more abundant on the east coast (particularly in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast)
There's not much more hydroelectric sources to be exploited in the U.S.
Nuclear has peaked and seems to be falling out of favor.
SO, if we assume the above is accurate, or at least reasonably reliable; the cost of energy will continue to rise relative to buying power. That doesn't mean it will be obscenely high or critical. It just means it will take a larger portion of your available money.
If natural gas is available where you live, that is an attractive fuel. However it makes you very dependent on a distribution network (often a government run system) that you have NO control over.
Propane is an option where NG isn't available but the cost is tied to the cost of oil.
If you live in an area where firewood is abundant and cheap, that makes a wood stove attractive.
Thinking LONG TERM and not short term - an EFFICIENT, high quality wood stove, makes good sense.
When making a purchasing decision for something you are going to own and use for 20+ years, you should amortize the initial cost of the device AND consider the cost to run it; over that entire 20 years. An extra $500-$1000 dollars in initial cost becomes insignificant over 20 years. An extra $200 PER YEAR becomes very important over 20 years.
That being said, Americans have long enjoyed access to relatively inexpensive energy. I'm not sure that will be the trend going forward.
I am NOT talking about next week, next month or even the next few years. I'm talking about the next 20 years plus.
Short term high energy costs, like some of us experienced in the oil crisis' of the 1970's (there were two); can be rode out with a little short term adjustment.
You don't make big decisions based on the cost and availability of energy over a year or two. You make decisions on the cost of energy over 10 to 20 years.
There was a push for "all electric" houses in the 1960's and 1970's. I can remember when electric baseboard heating systems were very popular. That form of heat turned out to be hideously expensive when the cost of electricity went up.
In the Northeast there was a shift from oil to natural gas. That trend seems to have slowed and even reversed in some cases.
During the second 1970's oil crisis, everyone and their brother wanted a wood stove.
From the early 1980's to today, oil prices have fluctuated considerably. Propane prices are tied to oil prices, so they go hand in hand. I don't see super cheap oil ever being available for long stretches of time.
U.S. production of natural gas has increased dramatically and it has become far more abundant on the east coast (particularly in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast)
There's not much more hydroelectric sources to be exploited in the U.S.
Nuclear has peaked and seems to be falling out of favor.
SO, if we assume the above is accurate, or at least reasonably reliable; the cost of energy will continue to rise relative to buying power. That doesn't mean it will be obscenely high or critical. It just means it will take a larger portion of your available money.
If natural gas is available where you live, that is an attractive fuel. However it makes you very dependent on a distribution network (often a government run system) that you have NO control over.
Propane is an option where NG isn't available but the cost is tied to the cost of oil.
If you live in an area where firewood is abundant and cheap, that makes a wood stove attractive.
Thinking LONG TERM and not short term - an EFFICIENT, high quality wood stove, makes good sense.
When making a purchasing decision for something you are going to own and use for 20+ years, you should amortize the initial cost of the device AND consider the cost to run it; over that entire 20 years. An extra $500-$1000 dollars in initial cost becomes insignificant over 20 years. An extra $200 PER YEAR becomes very important over 20 years.
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