When do you think common folk will be able to buy primes again?
- Thread starter JWFilips
- Start date
- Status
Dimner
Named Man
Without the gouging? I guess it depends on what you think gouging is. To me, 100 bucks a brick is gouging. 75 bucks a brick is what I think ends up being the consumer price based on price increases from the mfg-ers.
I guess I'd first like to see the small pistol primers come back and be in stock with consistency, regardless of price. I have a feeling we are still a year away from that.
I'd be shocked if we ever see primers under 45 bucks a brick ever again. I'd be smitten if they ended up at 50-55 a brick. But I have a feeling that 60-75 will be the new normal for at least a decade. Unless there just stops being people that gobble them up at a moments notice.
Reloading and shooting has become a rich man's activity. Like golf and the cost of golf balls, or woodworking and the cost of wood, or gearheads and the cost of parts.
I see all these new fangled super tactical timed shooting sports in a dozen different new formats. Then you have your standard formatted leagues and shooting events. Both rifle and pistol. Anyone who takes part in all that has to have the cash for all the non-reloading gear that is required. I have a feeling that they never even balk at the raising cost of ammo and components. It's ether pay or no play. And they have the cash to pay.
Guys are just trying to keep up on trigger time without a ton of funds seem to no longer be the bread and butter of the shooting and reloading community. I wish they were.
I guess I'd first like to see the small pistol primers come back and be in stock with consistency, regardless of price. I have a feeling we are still a year away from that.
I'd be shocked if we ever see primers under 45 bucks a brick ever again. I'd be smitten if they ended up at 50-55 a brick. But I have a feeling that 60-75 will be the new normal for at least a decade. Unless there just stops being people that gobble them up at a moments notice.
Reloading and shooting has become a rich man's activity. Like golf and the cost of golf balls, or woodworking and the cost of wood, or gearheads and the cost of parts.
I see all these new fangled super tactical timed shooting sports in a dozen different new formats. Then you have your standard formatted leagues and shooting events. Both rifle and pistol. Anyone who takes part in all that has to have the cash for all the non-reloading gear that is required. I have a feeling that they never even balk at the raising cost of ammo and components. It's ether pay or no play. And they have the cash to pay.
Guys are just trying to keep up on trigger time without a ton of funds seem to no longer be the bread and butter of the shooting and reloading community. I wish they were.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
I am NOT convinced that $75/K for primers is "The New Normal". I AM convinced that a lot of people WANT you think that is the new norm.
Depending on which inflation figures you use, the U.S. Dollar has lost somewhere between 20% and 27% of its value since 2015. So, the first factor is the money itself is worth less. For the sake of argument, let’s just assume a 25% loss in the value of a dollar since 2015. So, with all else equal, 1K of primers that cost $30 in 2015 would now cost $37.50.
To that we can add some reasonable increases in the cost of raw materials, transportation, and labor. But even with those increases, I can’t fathom $75/K is a price based solely on increases to manufacturing and transportation. That leaves market forces as the real reason for the high asking prices. In a nutshell, primers will continue to sell for $100/K – AS LONG AS THERE ARE PEOPLE WILLING TO PAY $100/K.
Even with increases in the cost of raw material (which are pretty cheap materials for primers) and increases in labor and transportation costs, the real driving force of high primer prices are the buyers willing to pay those high prices.
Those high prices are a bubble and all bubbles burst. Eventually the market will correct itself and we will find the true price for primers with inflation, with higher manufacturing costs and with higher transportation costs. Until that bubble bursts, the people selling primers will try with all of their might to convince you that $100/K is the new norm.
Depending on which inflation figures you use, the U.S. Dollar has lost somewhere between 20% and 27% of its value since 2015. So, the first factor is the money itself is worth less. For the sake of argument, let’s just assume a 25% loss in the value of a dollar since 2015. So, with all else equal, 1K of primers that cost $30 in 2015 would now cost $37.50.
To that we can add some reasonable increases in the cost of raw materials, transportation, and labor. But even with those increases, I can’t fathom $75/K is a price based solely on increases to manufacturing and transportation. That leaves market forces as the real reason for the high asking prices. In a nutshell, primers will continue to sell for $100/K – AS LONG AS THERE ARE PEOPLE WILLING TO PAY $100/K.
Even with increases in the cost of raw material (which are pretty cheap materials for primers) and increases in labor and transportation costs, the real driving force of high primer prices are the buyers willing to pay those high prices.
Those high prices are a bubble and all bubbles burst. Eventually the market will correct itself and we will find the true price for primers with inflation, with higher manufacturing costs and with higher transportation costs. Until that bubble bursts, the people selling primers will try with all of their might to convince you that $100/K is the new norm.
I know there is a legal definition for "gouging" as pertains to prices, and maybe primers don't qualify under these circumstances, but I understand the meaning as it is being used here. "Scalping" might be appropriate?
I paid $24/k for CCI primers in April of 2020, online, from Midsouth. There was no special sale going on, no rebates - that was just the price.
Two years later, I think anything more than a ten or twelve percent increase over that is out of line. I know everything is more expensive right now, but not 300% to 400% more expensive than two years ago. There is no valid reason for such increases other than the fact that those producing and selling primers CAN charge more, because people WILL pay more. THAT's what "supply and demand" actually means. There are a lot of rationalizations people will make for being too weak to just flat-out boycott gougers, which I'm not "buying."
Who am I to say what is gouging and what is reasonable? I am THE MARKET - at least a infinitesimally tiny part of it. It's like anything else - people complain, but they comply. As long as "we" (the market) complies, by paying more than we feel is reasonable, we'll keep HAVING to pay more than what we feel is reasonable. If we're paying it, it's really not unreasonable then, is it? People don't like discomfort and fold easily. What's money, after all? To many out there, it's just a number relative to their debt, and what's another hundred bucks for a thousand primers when they're farther in over their heads than they'll ever live to repay - and they don't worry about it. They just pay more and complain they need more money and borrow more.
Me? I'll conserve what little I have until I am down to a hundred or so primers - just enough for a cylinder-full and a speed-loader-full, and some for back-up, but no recreation at all. At that point, every shot must put food on the table or save life or limb. I'm not paying $100/k or even $50/k. I can tolerate a lot of discomfort. "Discomfort" would be a nice break from outright pain, so I'm not out anything on that note. 99+% of my shooting is recreational. I'm not having that held over my head for ransom.
If I were selling dandelion seeds for a buck a piece, I'd keep selling dandelion seeds for a buck a piece as long as people were willing to pay a buck a piece for dandelion seeds. Why wouldn't I?
Ian
Notorious member
Yep. I'd charge as much as the market will bear too, after all, that is point of making and selling something. If the prices are out of line, eventually a competitor will come along and keep the market honest with lower prices.
Unfortunately, we have certain shenanigans going on which eliminated the previous cheap import primer source, so we're stuck with domestics or the European alternatives. Regulations make it tough for new competition in the explosives manufacturing market, particularly a niche market, so I think this will go on for a while yet and be worse still due to inflation and rising cost of literally everything.
On the upside, the airgun business is booming and I bet Dixie Gun Works is seeing a surge in sales.
Unfortunately, we have certain shenanigans going on which eliminated the previous cheap import primer source, so we're stuck with domestics or the European alternatives. Regulations make it tough for new competition in the explosives manufacturing market, particularly a niche market, so I think this will go on for a while yet and be worse still due to inflation and rising cost of literally everything.
On the upside, the airgun business is booming and I bet Dixie Gun Works is seeing a surge in sales.
462
California's Central Coast Amid The Insanity
1. Talk about shenanigans, CCI, Federal, Remington are under the same umbrella.
2. Guy at the range, this morning, was shooting his brand new CVA in-line black powder rifle.
A NewsMax headline, today, said Millenials are buying more guns than the Baby Boomers. Guess which group has more discretionary money to spend on primers and powder and is more willing to pay historically high prices to get them, and how many Art and Science members are collecting Socialist Security
I personally believe that when all the silliness settles down the price of primers will get back to somewhat normal or reasonable. There may be a bit of increase because of inflation but that will be the total. Just before Covid all components (primers, powder, brass and rimfire ammo) were once again becoming readily available, and the bottom had fallen out of the market. Locally powder has been available in a limited selection pretty much all thru the latest manufactured crisis. The price on powder locally has gone up some but not by a factor of 3X's plus. A couple of weeks ago there were some shotgun primers on the shelf at one of the larger dealers. The first I've seen since this latest run-on components began. Things seem to be easing up some. There's actually some hunting ammo on the shelves in something besides 308. I'm hoping this is the last gasp of the scalpers, as things ease, they won't be able to find quite as many desperate or gullible.
fiver
Well-Known Member
i think it's the manufacturers holding the prices up right now.
there's all sorts of primers available their price is inflated though simply to pad profit margins.
i knew this would happen when federal got remington.
anyway one of the indicators of things going to return to what we consider normal soonish is already there.
and some good news.
the price of copper went down 30% recently.
anyway.
my indicator of normal after one of these stupid rushes is winchester 209 primers being on the shelf again.
when i see that i know the chain is up and operating like it always has.
there's all sorts of primers available their price is inflated though simply to pad profit margins.
i knew this would happen when federal got remington.
anyway one of the indicators of things going to return to what we consider normal soonish is already there.
and some good news.
the price of copper went down 30% recently.
anyway.
my indicator of normal after one of these stupid rushes is winchester 209 primers being on the shelf again.
when i see that i know the chain is up and operating like it always has.
JonB
Halcyon member
Looking in the rear view mirror, when we had craziness in the firearms/ammo/supplies market, the market craziness ends about 6 months to a year after the reason for the craziness ends. I won't mention what the craziness is, because we all know what it is and we can't talk about it here.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
History is a good teacher if you're willing to pay attention to it.
In 1979 the Iranian revolution occurred and by 1980 the price of crude oil (and therefore the price of gasoline) increased by about 4-fold. If you asked anyone’s opinion about the future price and availability of oil in early 1980, they would give you a doom & gloom outlook. By 1985 there was a huge glut of oil and the price of crude had dropped to below the 1979 price levels. All the negative predictions proved false.
If you were buying a house in 2007, the going price was artificially high. That bubble burst in 2008. A house that would sell for $400,000 or more in 2007 often wouldn’t bring $200,000 in 2009.
There was an unsustainable economic bubble in the 1920’s that burst in 1929. The resulting worldwide depression lasted about 10 years. In the middle of that depression, just to add to the misery, there was a historic drought known as the dust bowl. That didn’t help the situation.
These market and economic cycles happen. The bubbles ALWAYS burst.
There is a new primer company in Texas coming along in 2023. They'll fill in a lot of voids and will seek to quickly penetrate the market. The best way is price. I've not read yet on their distribution plans, that will be the next step. Once they're selling, prices will come down. Once there is a surplus, the sales will start.
L Ross
Well-Known Member
Yup, 18.2% interest on our first mortgage early 1980's. Had you told someone then of the mortgage rates coming down into the low single digits in the late 20teens they'd have called you nuts.
How many of today's primer buyers recall Olin offering a rebate on primers in 2019? A rebate! $25.00 off per case! Case lots brought about what bricks have been going for recently. And they don't spoil. Just be ready when the inevitable price drop happens, set aside a stash of cash so you can take advantage. Just like the bubble always bursts, the good times are never permanent either.
How many of today's primer buyers recall Olin offering a rebate on primers in 2019? A rebate! $25.00 off per case! Case lots brought about what bricks have been going for recently. And they don't spoil. Just be ready when the inevitable price drop happens, set aside a stash of cash so you can take advantage. Just like the bubble always bursts, the good times are never permanent either.
Bret4207
At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
Big ol' truth ball right there!
Bret4207
At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
If this pure electrical for power foolishness keeps going it will shoot back up. I think the recession is going to kick in strong here in real terms soon.
Bret4207
At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
Well, most of us try not to out of sheer sympathy for Rick and his gray hair, but we all know what you mean.
Bret4207
At the casting bench in the sky. RIP Bret.
I will have to take a slightly different view than some. I don't think we've even seen the start of the high prices. Between industry desire for profits, EPA, Woke loonies, politicians, politicians and more politicians, the looming hard core recession/depression, tyrants in many states, Pravda like information sources, etc., I believe theres a good chance you will soon see anything firearms related viewed as a "health/environmental/national security issue" and the costs will truly skyrocket. This mess is going to end up either with us not having firearms, or at least very limited access, or civil war. And why would a tyrant allow his enemies to have the ability to produce ammunition?
Dark, gloomy, pessimistic? Yup. Hope I'm 100% wrong, but world history kind of backs up my thoughts.
Dark, gloomy, pessimistic? Yup. Hope I'm 100% wrong, but world history kind of backs up my thoughts.
- Status