Population, guns, and economies

I bought A WHOLE BUNCH of primers in 2008, received them a year later, and am in good shape to this day. SP primers are getting a little thin on the ground, but I have lots of calibers that fit LP primers--so NO PROBLEMO.
 
Another viable option to stretch your existing supplies is to use less. Accept the fact that now is not a good time to be extravagant as far as usage goes. I certainly am not experimenting. My skills may degrade a bit, but my range of interests is broad and I can spend some time doing other aspects within the same hobby. Heck, I may even try powder coating. ;)
 
You? Powder coat? When pigs fly.

I have plenty of primes, powder, and lead on hand. Like the ant I stocked up when supplies were good.

The grasshoppers out there just never learn.

There is definitely a fear factor involved here as well. A new administration led to a panic amongst many gun owners, and first time buyers, which caused a run on ammo and components. The second the populace sees a run begin on anything we all go to panic mode and want to get some before it is too late.

Hornady is saying it may take a couple years to catch up on orders.
 
I find myself turning more and more to air rifles/pistols to keep my eye in the game. I took the covid money and bought a compressor and an "Air Force Talon" rifle. It has a good trigger, is plenty accurate enough for practice and small pest control if I choose. Mostly I shoot it in the basement, 20 rds every couple of days. I have a couple of .177 handguns too, but they don't provide what I need to keep sharp with them. I spend time dryfiring my carry pistol and a revolver to keep the muscle memory sharp with limited live fire.

I think I have an adequate supply of primers/cases/powder/ and projectiles but using the air rifles just extends the time before they get critical.
 
On May 7, 2021, Colonial Pipeline suffers cyber-attack, and the pipeline is shut down. This disrupts a major portion of gasoline and jet fuel deliveries on the east coast. The event is widely broadcast, and panic buying begins.

The pipeline was restarted on May 12, and full operation resumed May 15. On May 18, there were still over 10,000 stations without fuel. Within a few more days, retail sales returned to normal.

This is a good event to study because the entire event was short lived and easy to comprehend. The event only impacted a portion of the country and lasted less than a month from start to finish.

  • While the cyber attack resulted in the pipeline being shutdown, it was the announcement of the shutdown that started the buying spree.
  • When buyers received the news, they went out and purchased gasoline. Lines began to form at gas stations which fed the panic. Gas stations began to run out of fuel to sell and the panic reached full frenzy.
  • The point from the news reaching the public to the first stations running out of fuel took less than 48 hours. The full frenzy and panic set in within 72 hours.
Prior to the event there was nothing wrong with the distribution system in terms of capacity. The tank farms had ample fuel on hand, the tanker truck deliveries to retailers were easily able to meet the daily demand for fuel. The retailers had ample fuel on hand to meet the normal demands for fuel. The capacity of the distribution system was more than adequate to meet the needs in NORMAL conditions. After the event nothing needed to be expanded. Gas stations didn’t install extra tanks and the tank farms were not enlarged. The system is more than adequate to meet the demand when the demand isn’t being driven by emotion.

Panic buying affects you even if YOU are not the one panicking. Panic buying feeds on itself, it becomes self-fulfilling and self-sustaining once it occurs. Panic buying is a hard fire to put out. It is fed by emotion, not logic.

A run on a bank was perfectly portrayed in the movie, “It’s a wonderful life”. When people are driven by emotion, they don’t always act rationally.
 
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What I can’t understand is the belief that everything is always going to be ticking along without any hiccups. Basic things like planning ahead. Having a couple of 5 gallon jugs of gas that ever 6 months you make sure gets cycled and replaced with fresh. A generator that may sit and hopefully never be needed. A simple gas genset run dry, drain the carb can sit for quite a while and be read to use in a crunch as you already have 2 jugs of gas.
My BIL has a 7500 watt generator that has been put up for long term storage, drained carb an all, but he didn’t have any gas in jugs at all. So this winter in the 3 to 5 foot snow dump he could not get out of his driveway let alone drive the five miles to the station. He only has one five gallon jug anyway and his generator has a 10 gallon tank. So the power went out and he sat with his house growing colder and trying to figure out why his fan forced pellet stove would not work. Mark’s clueless with this stuff. My other BIL and myself take turns keeping him safe to the best of our abilities, but, you can lead a horse to water…..
A few months of food in what ever form you choose that is practical. I have and have given my kids a one month supply of food in containers with a 25 year shelf life.
I have 60 gallons of gas in five gallon jugs that I rotate out seasonally. And 500 gallons of #1 heating fuel for heating the shop and my standby generator. If gas supplies get interrupted I have a small backup supply, but would change over to my diesel truck for ground transportation for the duration..
I know this isn’t reloading components or ammunition, but it’s the same mindset. Emotions driving actions rather then logically being prepared.
I sold off a lot of powder and primers as I figured I could not use what I had on the shelf in my life time. Well at the current rate of consumption. That’s starting to change as I’m find and creating time for my favorite pass time. I still have possibly a lifetime supply, but starting to wonder if I should have held on to just a little more. There, the irrational side comes out just a bit for hoarding to get started. Now that this group has perked my interest in heavy and slow with smaller powder charges, I’m good for many years. But, primers? Who knows.
My plan as far as powder goes was to pickup some newer stuff like CF? 223, and more Bullseye, Power Pistol, but I’m certainly good with what I have to hand.
Most, maybe half on this Forum, live or have lived a rural lifestyle, so, have the basics whether it’s food, fuel, or components and are prepared for a hiccups.
Then there’s Brad. Now there’s a hoarder for you.

Edit: God help people that live in apartments.
 
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I understand the frustration. But the reality is we have been through this many times before and we will go through it many times more.

Most of us have seen real estate market bubbles burst. If you were around in 2008, you saw one of the biggest collapses ever in the U.S. real estate market. In the world of economics –all bubbles burst.

Some of us witnessed multiple oil crisis type events. There were two major oil crises in the 1970’s. One starting in 1973 and a second in 1979. By the mid 1980’s there was an oil glut. In the summer of 1985, the British Sector alone of the North Sea produced more oil than Saudi Arabia. (Source: The Prize by Daniel Yergin, Chapter 36). In the world of oil, (like everything else) political events determine the price of oil in the short term, but the market always determines the price in the long term.

We’ve seen shortages of toilet paper; driven entirely by panic. The shortages don’t have to be logical.

We’ve all seen localized short terms shortages of bread, milk, snow shovels, generators, gasoline, salt, ice, and other commodities, simply due to storms. Panic buying is a powerful force even when localized and over short periods of time.

We’ve all seen ammunition and ammunition component shortages several times in the last 14 years. Like most demand side shortages, this current one is being driven by panic & emotion. The emotional factors are different this time, but the resulting panic buying is as predictable and common as it gets.
 
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or what things should cost.
i've seen a few mention paying 80-90$ for a brick of primers and have no clue they should have at most been half that.
of course they had 0 primers before buying that brick, so it was buy them or not have any.
usually right after i faint they got the clue they should wait for their next purchase.

it occured to me that many of the panic buyers have no clue about economics [even the ones we learned in 4th. grade] and think this is the price they pay ''or go without'' cause that's what it is gonna be next year and 4 years from now too.
 
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