oscarflytyer
Well-Known Member
My local LGS just got a full set of shelves of powder. Stuff I haven't seen in ages. Keep an eye open - it MIGHT be showing up a bit...
Powders showing up
- Thread starter oscarflytyer
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Rick H
Well-Known Member
I hate to be the bearer of bad news. Newsweek just published a piece about ammo prices about to skyrocket because of a "Worldwide Shortage of Gunpowder". The source was stated as the outdoor conglomerate Vista, that owns most of the ammo/component companies in this country. Newsweek seems rather gleeful about the whole thing. Too many ongoing wars and not enough production.
If true "Vista" might be trying to trigger another wild run of powder. Surely someone somewhere should be upping powder production.
If true "Vista" might be trying to trigger another wild run of powder. Surely someone somewhere should be upping powder production.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
My faith in the ability of the press to accurately report anything is somewhere below zero. Not to mention the various agendas that are served by such reporting.
I think I'll just watch what happens and not pay attention to Newsweek.
I think I'll just watch what happens and not pay attention to Newsweek.
Winelover
North Central Arkansas
Powder has been more available than primers, during the last two component shortages. Alliant powders, especially Unique, being the exception. Albeit, the new price for one pounders has risen to the $50+ mark. Still some deals, from internet suppliers, for powder around $35/pound if you purchase an 8# jug............ even including HazMat. Several months ago, I picked up 8 pounds of W-231 for $35/ pound delivered, from Powder Valley.
Agreed, but like fashion, all someone has to do is say "everyone will be wearing dog-sweaters as leg warmers next year" and everyone will be wearing dog-sweaters as leg warmers next year.
About like the Johnny Carson TP shortage thing.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
Maybe not Everyone........
Any more, 8# of powder costs more than a lot of guns I've bought in the not too distant past. Just bought a brand new Rossi 357 revolver for $370.
Winelover
North Central Arkansas
But you still have to feed it!
Trust me, THAT was a big part of the decision to buy it, but it's replacing one I already knew I could feed.
I keep thinking ammo and component prices will affect gun sales, but it doesn't seem to be working that way.
Snakeoil
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I am also suspect of anything printed in Newsweek being objective. I got a notice from Brownell's that they had 2400 and bought another 8 pounder. I did not need it with 2 8 pounders already in the cabinet. But I remember a year ago buying 1 lb from friends that had a lot on hand so I could keep shooting. I also figured that prices are never going to go down anytime in the near future so, I just got it. Doesn't eat.
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
If I had a crystal ball capable of that level of accuracy, I’d be a billionaire.
While there’s a long history of campaign rhetoric affecting the firearms industry, there’s an equally long history of doom & gloom predictions turning out to be unfounded.
At the beginning of the Ukraine war if you asked people about the future price of gasoline, you would have received a far more negative prediction that what current events are proving. The reasons for the current relatively low fuel prices are not important. What is important is the fact that those predictions were WRONG.
I am very confident the sun will appear tomorrow morning over the eastern horizon, but that’s about the extent of my confidence in predictions.
Speculation has some value and that is how the stock market works. But speculation also has risks, and that is also why the stock market works.
None of us know what will happen in the next 11 months. Past history shows that election rhetoric often increases fear of increased gun control and feeds a “get it while you can” mentality. But even that’s not absolute. Big changes in geo-political events are unpredictable. Markets are always volatile to some degree. Some events will overcome other events.
The status of western Europe was very much in question in 1941.
The outlook for South Korea in August of 1950 was bleak.
The Cuban Missile crisis had a FAR better resolution than was thought possible.
The second oil crisis of 1979 resulted in huge increases in oil prices and the future looked dim. Shortly after that initial shock, other events took over and there was a huge glut of oil on the market and prices remained relatively low for many years.
YES, Bad events certainly do occur, and they will always continue to occur. BUT- there is an amazingly strong tendency to forget about the GOOD events that occur.
At the beginning of the 2023 Hurricane Season there were a multitude of dire predictions about the impending “worst hurricane season ever”. As always, hurricanes formed in 2023 and a few caused some damage. It was far from the disastrous, cataclysmic hyperbole being shoveled out by the press. There were 21 systems resulting in 13 deaths in the western hemisphere, hardly in line with the predictions.
We’ll See.
Snakeoil
Well-Known Member
I was invited to a Christmas party given by Shell Oil execs when I was in Curacao visiting customers, several years after the oil crisis. I was talking to a sales exec about the oil crisis. He admitted that the screwed themselves bigtime with that fake oil shortage. He said when things returned to normal there was so much excess crude sitting around because they all held back, that they almost had to pay people to take the stuff off their hands so they had room for new incoming crude.
In that same refinery, on the wall in the control room was a chart showing oil production over the years. I can't remember what was the first year on the chart, but it had been up there a long time. Anyway, for the years during the oil crisis, they had run out of room on the top of the chart and had glued a paper extension to the chart so that the curve could continue upward. I always regretted not taking a photo of that chart. But cell phones did not exist yet and I did not always carry a camera with me. Remember SLR cameras and film containers that always got a second look going thru customs??
Petrol & Powder
Well-Known Member
Not to get too far off topic, but in 1979 the loss of Iranian oil, first from the revolution and secord from the Iran/Iraq war, resulted in the price of crude oil skyrocketing. However, those high prices made production of some oil, such as from the North Sea, profitable. The resulting over-production drove supplies up and prices down.
But to stay on point, NO ONE predicted that in 1979.
The bottom line - People love to remember accurate predictions, esspecially accurate predictions of bad events.
People tend to forget inaccurate predictions. How many times have you heard someone in the fall predict a horrible winter only to totally forget that false prediction in the spring following the most mild winter in a decade?
But to stay on point, NO ONE predicted that in 1979.
The bottom line - People love to remember accurate predictions, esspecially accurate predictions of bad events.
People tend to forget inaccurate predictions. How many times have you heard someone in the fall predict a horrible winter only to totally forget that false prediction in the spring following the most mild winter in a decade?
Missionary
Well-Known Member
The old adage of "Strike when the iron is hot" still applies. But also if ya need it today... Oh well. Hopefully it is available.
Snakeoil
Well-Known Member
I get a kick out of people who start talking about what the Farmer's Almanac says about the upcoming winter. And then there are the ones that talk about the fuzzy caterpillars and how the length of their fuzz tells us what kind of winter we are going to have. Now it very well could be that the Almanac is pubished by aliens and the caterpillars actually are aliens and know what kind of winter the aliens are going to give us this year. But I find that the best predictor for weather is looking out the window in the morning. And even that is usually a crap shoot.
RicinYakima
High Steppes of Eastern Washington
A meteorologist once told me the most accurate prediction is that "tomorrow's weather will be like today's." And anything more than three days out is just a guess.