The Reloading Component Draught, When Will It Rain Again.

[462]

I placed a Powder Valley order five days before the Rooskies cheated Hillary, then was able to pick up some primers and powder before the local gun store closed. I'm set through the rest of Kamala's first term, but whenever Powder Valley's stock gets back to its former self I'll likely buy more.

 

[Petrol & Powder]

$200-220 will NOT be the "new normal" but there's plenty of sellers out there that want you to believe that will be the new normal.

As for where primers will bottom out at, I don't think it will be $40/1000 but $30-$35 may be plausible. The raw materials are very inexpensive, the cost comes from the manufacturing expenses, packaging, transport and storage. At $40 per thousand for any significant length of time (years not months) you'll see new suppliers get into the business. There's just too much profit at $40/K stay out of that game.

 

[Joshua]

$200-220 will NOT be the "new normal" but there's plenty of sellers out there that want you to believe that will be the new normal.

As for where primers will bottom out at, I don't think it will be $40/1000 but $30-$35 may be plausible. The raw materials are very inexpensive, the cost comes from the manufacturing expenses, packaging, transport and storage. At $40 per thousand for any significant length of time (years not months) you'll see new suppliers get into the business. There's just too much profit at $40/K stay out of that game.

I hope you are right.
But...
I work with a bunch of millennials who reload. They won’t blink at this “blip” in price. The oldest ones are getting ready to turn 40. They are on the very edge of midlife. Reloading is very much a midlife hobby. They are the next dominant generation in terms of numbers and their buying power will dominate this market in just a few years. If not all ready.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope this is just Generation X cynicism. While I have enjoyed paying Boomer prices for components, I expect to pay millennial prices in the near future.

 

[462]

I heard that the California chain gun store, that is located 20 miles away, quickly sold all of its supply of $1 per round Wolf/Tula lacquered steel cased .223/5.56 ammo. Prior to the last 18 months of weirdness, it was advertized at $5 per box of 20. Stupid management allowed the entire store's supply to be sold to two individuals.

 

[Petrol & Powder]

Joshua - Millennials are subject to the same laws of economics as EVERYONE else. They're not special. They don't drive the market for components anymore than they drive the market for gasoline, I-phones, coffee markers or tires. Some of them have more disposable income than others, some of them have less disposable income than others. Their age has little to do with their individual buying power. There are wealthy millennials and there are poor millennials and everything in between.
We've ALL been through this before and have been through it many times.
I've seen gasoline shortages, coffee shortages, we've all seen toilet paper shortages (who could have predicted that nonsense?) and markets ALWAYS find some equilibrium when left alone.

 

[fiver]

check the Federal website, or the Remington website [they sell direct to the public now] and see what a Box of PROMO type shot shells goes for there.
remember who they are owned by.
and for a second don't think they ain't testing the waters to see what suckerrr mmm consumers are willing to pay.
they'll figure that out, then set a path up so that Reloader's pay around 60% of that final number.

 

[Joshua]

P&P,
I’ve taken both macro and micro economics, I would hazard to say that they are not so much “laws” as they are a system of belief, more akin to religion than law. And the Economic High Priests (PHD’s) do not always agree on how they work.

I won’t pay $100, or $85, or even $75 for primers right now. But the kids that I work with will.

As part of a smaller generation that grew up under the oppression of the boomer’s taste in music and film. I can tell you that a generation CAN have the ability to sway a market with their buying habits.

 

[462]

I'm just a simple man with only a high school and school of hard knocks education. I've lived through interesting times, uninteresting times, weird times, and Jimmy Carter. Macro, micro, Keynes, blah, blah, blah . . . Let those with elaborate and framed pieces of paper, lots of initials after their names, and suede patches on their corduroy jacket elbows continue to argue about it all. In the end it's always about supply and demand.

 

[Mitty38]

I only purchased what I have absolutely needed, since this thing started.

4 boxes of 20 gauge #5's for squirrel and rabbit, at regular wally world prices,before they started disappearing too.

5 boxes of 9mm Blazer, that I got at $14 a box. I broke it down and resold the bullets and brass, keeping primers for myself. Actually made like a $5 profit. Split the primers between 38 special loads and .380 practice rounds. Tossed the powder.

380 Premium ammo direct from Federal, at not much more then regular price. Just put back some of that stimulus money, then watched the sight for a month till what I wanted became available. That is my primary carry round so had to get that. A person needs to blow off a couple mags a month, of his self defense ammo, from his carry gun to remain proficient (At least I do).

1000 rounds 22 long from Mr. Potterfield for about 14 cents a round. Cause the wife's rifle is picky and I had a constant ear ache till I did. That one hurt my pocket a bit.

And last but not least, an Arsenal bullet mould at regular price. So I can cast .223 bullets and shoot up the massive stash of SRP's pre primed brass and H-335 till this thing passes. Turning my coyote gun into my go to plinker. By the way even though I have achieved only 3 moa, so far, still having a blast at 50 yards with it.

May not get to shoot everything I like when I like, but good for at least 2 more years.
Not buying any more till the prices drop.

 

[Petrol & Powder]

There's a tendency to label generations (baby boomers, millennials, Generation x, etc.)
There is also a strong tendency to blame whatever unpleasant contemporary event that is occurring on the current youngest generation. (it cannot possibly be our fault or even slightly our fault)

I live in Virginia and we just experienced a gasoline "shortage" (it wasn't an actual shortage, just a media driven perception of a shortage).
The media announced that there might be problems if the pipeline wasn't restored to operation within a few days. That manipulation by the media caused everyone and their brother in the southeast to buy gasoline. That run on gasoline resulted in retailers exhausting their inventory of gasoline and that only exasperated the panic. There was never an actual shortage, the tank farms had plenty of gasoline but there was such a huge demand that the delivery of gasoline to retailers couldn't keep up.
That event wasn't driven by Baby Boomers, Millennials, Generation X or any other labeled generation. It was driven by STUPID people and every generation is full of STUPID people.

There's a line in the movie "Men in Black" in which Agent K (Tommy Lee Jones) tells Agent J (Will Smith) that: "Individuals are smart, PEOPLE are stupid". I have never heard a more accurate and succinct description of reality.

 

[fiver]

heh,, yeah I've seen the 'gotta get mine' thing too many times.
you ever see how competitive women get over a 3 cent string of plastic beads [or a bouquet of dying flowers] just because they are being thrown out at some event.

 

[Rick H]

Do you remember the brawl that was called "The Blue Light Specials" at K-Marts?

 

[popper]

Got an email from SIL this morning, looking for 410 shot shells. Just bought her a Taurus Public Defender - needs snake shot. Do the make a low velocity 45 snake rnd? I figure she needs some regular 45 for 2 legged and hogs.

 

[Mitty38]

We used to shop K mart every other Sunday. I can remember being the designated cart bearer. Making a run for the blue light Cart in hand trying to be the first on there.
Also remember Texas Steers, and pearl buttoned cowboy shirts. And A gun section.

Texas Steers Texas Steers , the hotest deal in years, a little bit of lute buys a lot of boot at Kmart, Kmart.At Kmart.

Boy I am proud of my self now. Not only did I drift but I probably stuck a 30 year old jingle in sombodys head for a day, And I weren't even tryin'.

 

[JustJim]

As part of a smaller generation that grew up under the oppression of the boomer’s taste in music and film. I can tell you that a generation CAN have the ability to sway a market with their buying habits.

Disco. Q.E.D.

 

[RicinYakima]

As a kid, I grew up on Country Hayride and Barn Dance on the radio, square dancing just wasn't my thing. By middle age I loved DISCO dancing! One night a month we would hire a baby sitter and go to the Holiday Inn. We could afford two drinks each and dance till mid-night when the baby sitter had to be home.

 

[RBHarter]

Well Dad was born in 39' , Mom is War Baby , I managed to put off my arrival until 66' .
Benny Goodman , Andrews sisters , Buddy , Ritchie , Bill Halley , Belafonte , Elvis , Beattles , Stones , from there it rolls into the super stars of the 70's and the roots of rap . There's nothing to take away the the whole world away like the sound of an old straight spline transmission or whatever it is about the +350 cid FE and Big Blocks . I'm barely an X'er raised by War Babies with the influences of Depression kids and whatever they called 1885-1905 babies .

I've never felt oppressed , cheated , ...... Unfortunately I raised 4 kids with all of that truth , justice , American way , valor , pride , chivalry , charity , etc .

I don't what to say . The market will only take what it will . I bought a lot of primers average 36/1000 maybe a little less with the arsenal pack of #41 about 25/1000 .

With my shooting having crawled to a stop I'm probably set for 20 , 25 yr .
Whatever it costs it'll still be cheaper than $40-50/box for 45 Colts , 45-70 ,or 264 WM .

 

[fiver]

heck Popper guy I know just paid 35$ a box for some 410's so he could shoot the henry lever rifle he has had for 6-7 months now.
but they still do make a decent number-9 shot, 410 shell, that'd knock a snake down with no issues.

just my opinion but the 410-45 colt revolvers are better off using nothing but 410 shells for the various things you'd want to do with one of those revolvers.

 

[popper]

35$ for the cheap stuff seems normal. If I had some brass cases I could make some snake loads, not sure she can handle dove loads in the short pistol. CCI makes snake loads but not in stock, like everything else. He's got a 38, don't know why he didn't go with that. Yrs ago MIL gave me 'her' 12ga SS and 2 boxes of 'bullets' - 410 paper shells! I don't think she really ever shot the gun - it went down the road to BIL who just lets it sit. I told him it works but don't shoot it, won't like what happens - to the shoulder.
When the LGS opens tomorrow I might go see if they got some 45 colt cases - usually have a decent lot of 'once' shot. LRP should work?

 

[JustJim]

Popper, if they don't have any I think I have some assorted 45 Colt brass in my box.